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The Trump era is now at an end.
Despite a once-in-a-generation pandemic, blatant attempts at voter suppression, and unfounded claims of voter fraud, the US pulled off not just a free and fair election, but an election with the highest turnout ever in recorded history. And as of today, every news network (including Fox News) has projected that Joe Biden will be the 46th president of the United States.
But, as with everything 2020-related, there’s always the chance that things go sideways. It ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings, or in this case, until Trump’s army of Republican lawyers have exhausted every possible legal avenue for having the results overturned.
That being said, Trump’s strategy of using the courts to steal the election really hasn’t worked out that well. Tweeting in all-caps “STOP THE COUNT!” the day after Election Day didn’t really do anything for some reason. His team filed a lawsuit in Pennsylvania to throw out ballots that were submitted, had issues, and then were corrected, affecting a grand total of 93 ballots. In Georgia, another lawsuit affecting the validity of 53 ballots got thrown out of court. An attempt to invalidate 127,000 ballots submitted via drive-through voting centres in Texas also failed.
So far, all these attempts to find instances of voter fraud have come up empty. Actually, that’s not completely true. They did find an instance of voter fraud in Pennsylvania…from a Trump supporter. Apparently, a man in Luzerne county forged his dead mother’s signature to request an absentee ballot so he could cast an extra vote for Trump. But thanks to the Republican party’s hyper-vigilance on mail-in ballot fraud, he got caught, arrested, and is now facing up to 10 years in jail. So, good job Trump! You totally found the voter fraud!
So now that we know that the next president will be Joe Biden, my head always goes to one place: How does this affect our readers? How does a Joe Biden presidency affect those trying to get to Financial Independence, and how does it affect those of us who have already hit FIRE? Let’s dive in to find out!
Taxes Will Be Going Up On High Income Earners
It may come as a surprise to you, but unlike Trump, Joe Biden actually had a platform going into this election. I know, so weird and quaint, right?
So first of all, let’s take a look at his taxation plan.
Trump’s tax plan was to basically cut taxes for wealthy people and corporations. I have to admit: I personally benefitted quite a bit from that policy. As corporate taxes go down, coporate profitibility goes up, which causes stock markets to rise, and therefore my retirement portfolio to rise as well. As a retired person with most of their wealth invested in the stock market, I am very much a beneficiary of the Trump administration.
Those days are coming to an end. Biden has pledged to eliminate the Trump corporate tax cuts. But with the US deficit the way it is, he can’t afford to eliminate a tax without increasing taxes somewhere else, and where he’s planning on increasing taxes is on high earners.
High earners, by the way, refers to those earning more than $400k a year. This is kind of an odd line to draw, but he appears to be taking aim at the top two federal tax brackets of 35% for singles earning $207k to $518k, and 37% for singles earning $518k+. Maybe he’ll carve out a new bracket at the $400k level, but he’s pledged to increase the top tax bracket to 39.6%. How exactly he does that will become more clear over time, but suffice it to say that if you’re in these two top tax brackets, you’ll likely pay more taxes.
Also, he’s planning on making changes to the tax rates people pay on investment income, specifically long term capital gains and qualified dividends. To FIRE people who hear that and instinctivey panic, relax. The changes he’s proposing only affect people earning over $1M total. The exact text in his platform is “Asking those making more than $1 million to pay the same rate on investment income that they do on their wages,” so it sounds like he’s planning on leaving the long term capital gains and dividends rates unchanged below that threshold.
So for the most part, a Biden presidency doesn’t seem to affect rank-and-file members of the FIRE community too much. Which is good.
However, there is one change that will affect the FIRE community, which are his proposed changes to 401K’s. The details require more research on my part, though, and I will cover them in next week’s article, so stay tuned!
Health Care Will Be Expanded
Ah, healthcare. I’ve written about it here, here, and here, because the healthcare situation in America is a constantly changing moving target.
But with Biden’s election, there is hope for progress. Joe Biden was instrumental in the creation of the Affordable Care Act, famously remarking to Obama (and his hot mike) that it was a “big fucking deal.” It was. And still is.
So I’m sure both him and Obama weren’t having a good time watching Trump get into the Oval Office and repeatedly take a claw hammer to their signature achievement. Trump tried again and again to kill Obamacare, only to have it saved from destruction by the most improbably random people, like Republican Senator John McCain, who memorably saved Obamacare with a single thumbs-down in the Senate despite the fact that he ran against the person who created it in the first place.
Now, Biden has a chance to not only stop the onslaught against Obamacare, but to expand it into something bigger. When Obamacare was first proposed, there was a component of it called the Public Option. In a nutshell, it allowed the US government to set up its own health insurance system to compete with the private sector, and it would have been a game changer because it would have given the government the ability to control prices. Because the government can simply mandate every health care provider to accept Public Option patients, they can create an unbeatable negotiating position to bring the for-profit health care system in the US inline with other developed countries.
Unfortunately, back in 2009, Ted Kennedy, a liberal senator who fully supported this idea, died, taking the super-majority that Democrats enjoyed down with him. Democrats were forced to abandon the Public Option idea, and that’s what got Obamacare stuck in this limbo position for the next 10 years.
Now, with Biden as president, he’s pledged to bring back the Public Option.
And Yet The Stock Market Will Likely Go Up
All this might seem scary to a capitalist who only cares about which direction the stock market will go, but surprisingly, Wall Street has very much embraced the idea of a Biden presidency.
Here’s the thing about Wall Street: It hates uncertainty. And the Trump presidency has been nothing but uncertainy. All. The. Fucking. Time.
And paradoxically, despite the fact that Trump loves to tout the stock market performance under his tenure, historically the stock market tends to do better under a Democratic president rather than a Republican one.
“Investors have seen more generous returns from equities when Democratic presidents were in the White House, going back to 1945.”
~~The Stock Market Does Better When Democrats Are In The White House, HuffingtonPost
And while it may seem counter-intuitive that Wall Street would be cheering someone who’s planning on raising corporate taxes, they are also taking into account that Trump, as he was still recovering from COVID, blocked much-needed stimulus to the American people hurting from the pandemic.
The calculation is that the positive effect of actually helping people during COVID will be offset by any tax increases. So that’s why the stock market will likely go up under a Biden presidency.
But How Much Will Actually Get Implemented?
So that’s the current state of the union. I’m sure some of you agree, and some of you don’t with what the incoming president is planning on doing. But a big wildcard that even I can’t predict is: How much of his agenda will actually make it into law?
As of right now, the presidency has been called for Joe Biden, the House of Representatives has been called for Democrats, but the Senate has not. It’s currently (as of the time of this writing), sitting at 48-48. There’s still an uncalled race in Alaska, and in Georgia, the candidates are going to head into a run-off election that won’t take place until January. So we have no idea who will control the Senate.
If Democrats control the Senate, then the government will become a rubber-stamp factory for Joe Biden’s agenda. But if Republicans retain control of the Senate, then Joe Biden may enter office as a lame duck from day one.
I don’t know what’s going to happen. Do you? Let’s hear it in the comments below!
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111 thoughts on “How Does a Joe Biden Presidency Affect the FIRE Community?”
Here we go again.
The Supreme Court will ensure the fraud perpetrated upon the American people will not stand.
Biden will not be the president. The media doesn’t elect the president. We the people do.
Sorry. I know liberals hate facts and deal in emotions, but even Ray Charles can see the voter fraud.
Once Trump is certified, I can’t wait to see the liberal temper tantrums!
The looting and rioting. All because the dems didn’t get their way. This is far from over.
Trump will fight like the fighter that he is and not stand by while the Democrats turn this country into a Banana Republic.
Biden is a 47 year do nothing but enrich himself politician like the rest of them.
Trump is an outsider and got things done. And upset the establishment.
Fortunately we the people decide who our president is. Not the corrupt media. Democrats. Or Twitter.
Get over it. Trump will be your president. Like it or not.
Biden won’t even remember he was running for President when they tell him he lost!
I noticed you did not quote a single source for your rubbish claim of voter fraud – care to amend your post ? You were talking about facts after all…
… or are you just in looser blues and needed to vent ? That’s OK, mommy will bring you your blanky … snowflake
Try checking the news and even you will have the facts. TDS much!
You suffer from ‘Facts Derangement Syndrome’
There were some irregularities. Why wouldn’t Biden and his voters encourage scrutiny to prove a fair election took place and unite the nation?
Biden and team don’t need to prove anything. And anyways, they won. Why would they waste their time. Only idiots would do that and I don’t see them as idiots.
well said Geno.
Ok, I just comforted your mom! Anyhow, no point in debating a libtard like you. Invest in Kleenex, you will be crying soon!
Biden got more vote than Obama, LMFAO! You are just an idiot. He can’t tie his shoes, but you think he can be president. Go back to your coloring book you fool.
Geno, you defend these billionaires like you’re one of them.
You puppet whatever Trump and his Murdoch/Sinclair/Koch cronies tell you to think. Meanwhile, these guys wipe their as$es with your $500k daily. Or however much you’ve squirreled away, thinking you’re some big-shot.
You are less than nothing to these people. Stop acting like their slave.
I defend them because of their policies! The radical left want to transform the USA into a socialist country. Trump’s policies are what this country has been built upon! It’s refreshing to see an outsider accomplish more than any other politician in history.
Sounds like you are mad as hell. Haha, Karma is a bitch, republican cry babies. Tissues?
No worries, the evil radical left will not steal this election. I’m confident but disgusted with what they attempted to do and so should you. But your not bc you want socialism at all costs!.
Geno is right. What’s most surprising is how many Leftists here want to assert there was no fraud when they’ve been telling us for the last 4 years that voter fraud was easily perpetrated by the Russians to ensure a Trump victory! 😆
“The media doesn’t elect the president. We the people do.”
Agreed. And We The People elected Joe Biden.
I’m sorry, I know Trump’s supporters are still in denial that someone who did nothing about a pandemic and emboldened white supremacy groups could actually lose an election, but the cold hard facts of the matter is that there was no fraud and no even semi-credible evidence of it. None. Zilch. Zero. And anyone who tells you otherwise is lying to you.
We can disagree on who people SHOULD have voted for, but the fact is that people DID ultimately vote for Biden. And they did so LEGALLY and without fraud, no matter how much Trump tweets or Giuliani screams otherwise.
The conspiracy theories have to stop. I think you guys are far better than this. This is just silly. Even Trump’s lawyers once they’re in front of judges and under oath say that the publicly made allegations are false. That’s why all his suits are being thrown out.
ARB—Angry Retail Banker
Not much of Biden’s plan will get implemented with split congress, if anything whatsoever
Wow no political bias here Wanderer (sarcasm) as you claimed to not be biased in the past. Stick to finance.
If he is biased, so what? Is he not allowed to be? Someone as heavily invested as he is in the US Stock and Bond markets does need an eye on politics – it is heavily linked to his finances. Your ‘stick to finance’ jibe would be a better put-down if he side-tracked from finances to give a view on American Idol or Borat 2
I found something interesting reading this post. Wanderer obviously dislikes Trump and went on a preamble for the first 5 paragraphs where he provides his views on voter fraud (of which I think he is dead wrong and and ignorant of what is going locally in America). But what I think the strength of this is that both wanderer and FIREcracker are one of the few influencers online that have earned my trust enough not to ignore the rest of the article or go straight to angry comments section.
Just writing to say thank you for this summary you provided
I was wondering about this very thing. Wanderer thanks for posting this on a Sunday! The 401k stuff has me a little nervous, but like you said I need to do more research. Anxiously awaiting your take on that situation. Thanks!
I agree. I really wonder about the 401K situation as well. You really do have to wonder if he is going to do all that he is claiming. Biden seems like a breath of fresh air at the moment but only time will tell if he will be implementing all that he is claiming.
You have series Trump Derangement Syndrome. I think you should stick to the yield shield.
It doesn’t matter. The haters will hate, despite all the good he’s done! But they can’t handle the truth or his tweets. He’s the father these democrats never had in their lives, to give them a harsh slap back into reality. And they’ve been unglued for the past four years lol.
Dude, what has Trump done beside create more divisiveness between people? He “reformed” Obamacare? The policies he “implemented” were already there if you actually read the bill. I will give you one point – taking a tougher stance on China which needed to be done. Trump is extremely unorthodox, but he seems to have started down an interesting path with them regarding a trade deal. I don’t think the deal would ever get done under Trump, but it is a good blue print for others to take with China in the future.
Also, as others have posted, what evidence do you or any of your friends have for widespread fraud? If there was please come forward. Like many people in this country (me included) we should and want to know. Without concrete evidence, we are nothing more than a good Dan Brown novel.
Biden’s 401k changes will be horrible for those of us who are self employed and trying to achieve FI. Currently you can put over $50k tax deferred 401k , under Biden you will cap out at $20k (including employer match or the profit sharing an S Corp can utilize) and the amount you can put in is a percentage of income. He is also REMOVING the deduction you get for contributing and replacing it with some kind of credit. The details on the credit are fuzzy but looks like they will cap at a few thousand dollars. On top of this he is removing the 20% deduction self employed people get from pass through income.
Obamacare may be good if you are already retired and showing low income, but it has been a nightmare for those self employed who actually need to buy our own healthcare and not have it paid for by taxpayers. Currently in MA a small business pays roughly $24K for insuring a family not to mention deductibles and copays. Obamacare did NOTHING to reduce the cost of healthcare, it only forced small businesses who didn’t have leverage to pay for those who mooch off the system and get the “free” healthcare provided to the low income.
Obamacare was supposed to lower healthcare spending under the misguided notion that people without insurance would stop going straight to the emergency room where care is very expensive, and instead go to a primary care physician. The opposite has held true.. people are still going straight to ER while charges in the ER are skyrocketing. (Recently I took my 7 year old to ER for a small cut on his head.. the bill was $3600 for the 10 minutes it took for him to get a few staples in his head to seal the wound . It would have been quicker but they decided to let a ‘resident’ put in the staples. After 2 attempts of stapling the cut and pulling out the staples after each attempt ,she had to and then call in a trained doctor to put in the staples)
People who don’t get the “free” insurance now have astronomical copayments and deductibles on top of the premiums, which is actually making them go to the doctors less .
People can bash Trump all the want, but at least he was trying to cap drug prices and attack the real problems that are causing the high costs. Obamacare is a gift to insurance companies and big pharma at the expense of small business.
I’m counting on a gridlock to keep Joe from rising my taxes and making 11M illegal immigrants use our taxpayers money in benefits and steal our jobs. I voted for Joe just because I don’t like Trump but I really think it’s not going to be a good thing for my fire finances!!
You are a smart one huh.
So cut off your nose to spite your face. This is the incredible amount of stupidity prevalent in our society today. Thank god your vote won’t matter when he gets reelected. Unreal!
Wow quite a biased post and from you guys who claim don’t like communist (FC is clear on that or perhaps she only dislike Chinese commies?) or socialism.
Ok we don’t like Trump but don’t expect Biden admin will be good for the Fire community. It won’t. I hope GOP can keep the senate or we’re screwed!
Why didnt Obama bring in communism when he had all 3 branches?
@ht a lot of dems are moderate. Obama was very divisive. If it wasn’t for Obama we would have never seen a Trump victory.
So all this talk about ‘being screwed’ and socialism/communism is just hyperbolic nonsense? got it, thanks.
Seriously, you could say that going back to Hoover (at least). If not for Hoover, we wouldn’t have had FDR/Truman. If not for FDR/Truman, we wouldn’t have had Eisenhower. If not for Eisenhower, we wouldn’t have had Kennedy/Johnson. If not for … you get the point. Nixon, Carter, Reagan/Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump. America is a fairly evenly divided country (see: Georgia 2020, or Florida 2000 for examples).
Fact of the matter is, even if Democrats win BOTH special elections in January, it is HIGHLY unlikely much of Biden’s agenda gets enacted. Why? There are many Democrat members of the Senate who are 1) pretty conservative (see: Manchin, Joe or likely, Kelly, Mark) and 2) up for re-election in 2022. Keeping a 50-50 Senate 100 percent on-board with a progressive agenda will be impossible.
Finally, the biggest change that could potentially come to the ACA/Obamacare is a Supreme Court ruling striking the entire law down. Based on questions from Roberts and Kavanaugh in today’s oral arguments, it looks like they may strike down the individual mandate, but leave the rest of the law in place.
@CHGOFIRE I agree.
Exactly! They wrote a detailed post on communist China and how they distrust China, but China Joe is okay! Trump derangement syndrome! That’s all. The left if it has their way will destroy this country. Look at the rioting and statutes that have been torn down. This is the left. These are Biden voters!
I have read in many places that he is removing the $24k standard deduction for a family . That is a massive tax INCREASE for most families. Trump put a cap on the federal deduction you can get on real estate and state tax at 10k which increased tax on super high earners. Biden is removing this which is a massive gift to ultra high earners in blue states with high state income and properly tax as they can deduct full amount of state and property tax to no limit. Funny how you missed these as they don’t fit the narrative you are spinning!
I’m from Georgia and Kelly will gain all the votes Collins (R) got so that one is easy for Republicans to get. On the other run, I doubt Ossoff can pull this off but not impossible. David Perdue is a crook but the state is still devided and many independents will want to keep the balance and elect a republican. Let’s just hope so.
+ The continuation and enhancement of Obamacare would definitely benefit the FIRE community.
– Raising taxes would probably have a negative impact on the stock market and therefore the FIRE community.
? Not sure about the proposed Biden 401K changes – I read about them, but I don’t quite understand them yet. I do know that the current 401K system has definitely helped me achieve FIRE.
Nothing brings out the frothy typo-laden wingnut comments like suggesting that DJT might not be a very stable genius. Good times, good times.
You do realize Project Veritas has been busted on multiple occasions for falsifying information (Roy Moore, Planned Parenthood, election “fraud” in 2016)? You can’t believe anything these jokers present as the “truth”.
You are so right “T”
Hahaha! You probably believe everything published on the The Onion too. You are too precious “Matt”.
Happy you have a different view and won’t escalate the “precious” comment.
Before searching for something online trying to figure it out if is true or not consider the concept of “astroturfing” as discussed in this Ted Talk with award-winning reporter, Sharyl Attkisson. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bYAQ-ZZtEU
All the best
Great article! I’m looking forward to future articles. I hope you’re getting a good laugh from all these ridiculous comments
Great post Wanderer! Really appreciate the deep dive into relevant details of USA politics in terms of how we can be impacted within the FIRE community. It’s great to see your perspective on these details. Your writing is rational and respectful. Not partisan and definitely not ignorant. Very well done.
$400K is not an odd line. Google: “What is the Salary of a US President” It’s what he’s promised and has worked towards. Everything else is just going to be gravy.
Thank you for the great post, MM!
One thing that surprises me is that, even within your readership, there are so many nutcases, that is, individuals who think character, morals, and common decency do not matter in choosing a president. Wow.
What character are you talking about? A corrupt politician who has corruptly enriched himself and family through the Russians, Chinese, Ukranians and more is now the US President-elect Congratulations!
I can’t get my head around how when one person looks at Trump they see a awful human being, and another person sees him as a saviour. It’s truly baffling.
Interesting comments for this blog post. I never thought there were so many readers who were wing-nut Trump sycophants. My message to them is get over yourselves. If you can’t do it yourself, seek therapy. There are many therapists doing online consults at this time. They can help with your deprogramming.
Part of life is being open and adaptable to change. Those who cannot do this typically fall to the wayside, or into the gutter. Is that really where you want to be?
Big hugs to all. Good article. Well written Bryce.
From the comments here, I’m sure you are getting an idea of the political rhetoric we are dealing with over here in USA. It’s pretty alarming to me that people are so uneducated about facts and so indoctrinated by slanted propaganda, but are still able to achieve fire. The problem being that MAGA people refuse to concede that tRump lost despite, ya know , MATH. ( which, I would thing FIRE people would be good at) Anyway, please ignore the haters…we’ve been trying for about 4 ears. Love your blog and am close to fire myself. I am concerned about the 401K changes and I’m going to go look at the Biden website. I would hope that position is open to compromise, as Americans are not good savers and its one of the only ways for working people to guarantee they wont retire into poverty
I have enjoyed this blog for some time, but there is something that irks me and I’d really like to hear your thoughts on this….
Obamacare included a mandate ensuring that if the government determined you could afford health insurance, you were legally obligated to buy it or you faced a fine regardless of how high the premiums were.
Those who could not afford insurance (as determined by the government) had insurance paid for by the government. Certainly the intention was not for millionaires like yourself to have “free” health insurance, but for whatever reason the calculation to determine who can ‘afford’ to pay for their own insurance does not include assets and so would not look at the million or millions of dollars that you have in the market.
Would you still support Obamacare if millionaires like yourself were forced to pay for insurance as most middle class Americans do?
It seems that you have a Progressive mindset, but it doesn’t seem very progressive for the American middle class to pay exorbidant premiums for health insurance while millionaires are getting a free ride. Don’t liberals and progressives believe that millionaires should be paying a bigger share in order to support all of those who don’t have anything?
In Canada, millionaires and regular working people have paid into the system, and we, like most developed countries, enjoy the peace of mind that if we fall ill, (for the most part), don’t need to worry about paying huge medical bills. It’s a good system, and it works. I don’t understand the fear in the US of such a system. It doesn’t seem rational.
I rarely comment, but I just wanted to add further detail to this. One of my clients is now paying for their own health insurance through COBRA. Coverage for them and their spouse and kids is over $7K/month just for the premiums. This does not count the deductible they had to meet before any coverage at all kicked in, and of course copays.
Honestly seeing those numbers makes me tempted to go without in a similar situation.
I’m not exactly sure what is meant by:
“Biden has pledged to eliminate the Trump corporate tax cuts. But with the US deficit the way it is, he can’t afford to eliminate a tax without increasing taxes somewhere else, and where he’s planning on increasing taxes is on high earners.”
If you’re eliminating a corporate tax cut, doesn’t that mean you are raising corporate taxes? My understanding of the Biden administration’s plan is that they will raise taxes on both corporations and wealthy individuals (so basically the opposite of what Trump did).
Looking at the the comments here reminds of Scotts Adams Blog post about how people can look at the same information and come to exact opposite conclusions.
“This phenomenon has nothing to do with natural intelligence. We like to think that the people on the other side of the political debate are dumb, under-informed, or just plain evil. That’s not the case. We’re actually experiencing different realities. I mean that literally.”
Hmm, correct me if I’m wrong, but it appeared that climate deniers, anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers, and covid is a hoax believes, were cheering for Trump.
“Investors have seen more generous returns from equities when Democratic presidents were in the White House, going back to 1945.”
Which is not necessarily a good thing to say about the dems
The fact is that I received my roommate’s mail-in ballot even he moved out 2 years ago…. so no voter fraud?
Well, only if you filled it in, forged the signature and then returned it…
I enjoy your Millennial posts enormously. I really do not think Biden will make it into office because of all the corruption. If he does, he will probably destroy this entire nation. Your 401k won’t matter anymore. Sorry to sound like a Doomer. These people are not after Donald Trump. They’re after us.
They actually want to ‘fundamentally transform’ this nation as former president Obama has stated. The only way to do that is to bring it to it’s knees and rebuild it. The wealth redistribution can then take place after the soft tyranny. ‘You didn’t built that’ as Obama said will turn into ‘You didn’t earn that’. And so the have not’s will be able to take from the have’s(except the ruling class) It’s is already showing up with the young people looting as many have been caught on film saying ‘it’s mine’ ‘it’s reparations’ for the evil you have perpetrated on this country. I have been told I have white privilege and shouldn’t tell looters not to take what is rightfully theirs. Biden is now run by the big tech billionaires. The parties have totally flipped. Trump is for the little guy, unions, police. It is the big tech corruption along with the media that has participated in voter suppression along with the incorrect (again) polls. Just the media and big tech Twitter and Facebook censorship of the Hunter Biden story should be enough to tell you who is corrupt. Biden taking in millions from China through his son Hunter. They may soon be the ruling class and will sell your interests out for their own gain. That is corruption. Sure Trump is as corrupt as any other business man but at least he had our interests at heart.
Ah the old, “You didn’t build that” quote. However the full quote is, “Somebody invested in roads and bridges if you got a business you didn’t build that.” I’m sure that Obama would love to apologize to all those businesses that did build bridges and roads, paid for by the government. As for those who didn’t, people’s ability to get to the business that you built is being subsidized by the government.
Yes, they want to turn the US into communist Canada, with our evil socialist health care system and safer streets, and ultimately get you to say “eh” at the end of every sentence, eh.
As an American, I shudder at the thought of the state-mandated kindness-towards-others that will be forced down my throat by our new moose overlords. At least we’ll get real maple syrup, eh.
You will survive, and the world around you will be a better and safer place. Yes, there may be a percentage who take advantage of such a world, but overall, it’s still a better one.
The longer term USA prosperity will suffer from the Biden tax plan. Expanding the capital base (ie. capital formation) drives increasing productivity and wages. In the USA, most of the our capital formation comes from corporations and the wealthy. So when something costs more (higher taxes) you get less of it. Basic economics.
Large multinational corporations make choices on where (what countries) to make their capital investments (after tax IRR rules the decision making process). Raise their taxes and their investments go elsewhere. Basic economics. The USA loses more capital formation.
Wow! Great article for turning off 71 million. The opening few paragraphs sound just like Michelle Obamas’ recent statement.
“Let’s remember that tens of millions of people voted for the status quo, even when it meant supporting lies, hate, chaos, and division. We’ve got a lot of work to do to reach out to these folks in the years ahead and connect with them on what unites us.”
Nothing like a good article on your part or a good statement on her part to unite us.
Great Job! Keep up the good work.
I’ve NEVER been so happy as to be a Canadian. And this year I am going to pay $600,000 in tax (at a top marginal rate of 51.53%). Do I like paying that much tax? No. Is it at least reasonable value? Undoubtedly.
I surely don’t know why you bothered to write on this topic though Wanderer, and then encourage comments. It would appear that civil discourse is an impossibility in the USA.
I do enjoy reading your posts. Politics aside, you unfortunately dont go deep enough in your writing to consider 2nd and 3rd order effects (postive and negative) A few examples: you mentioned public option health care price controls (price controls normally result in system shortages as seen with our medicaid system), raising taxes on high income earners will have no negative effect on anyone else except stock holders (taxation crowds out investment, charitable giving and consumer spending), you seem to think Obama care was a big deal as more people have insurance coverage (it was as premiums, deductables, and costs sky rocketed after it was passed with no change in quality of care). Also the big banks liked Biden as they believe they will get huge stimulus and more debt monetization which could give a short term boost with long term negative consequences.
What profits a man if he gains the world but loses his soul?
In God’s economy, The first shall be last and the last shall be first.
You guys should stick to personal financial advice, which you are great at, and keep your one-sided propagandist political opinions to yourselves, such as repeating the media’s assertions that Trump’s fraud claims are unfounded.
You guys should this… You guys should that…
Are you paying for this blog? Are you involved with its maintenance? Outside of ignorant comments like what you added here, do you add any value?
Listen and comprehend this. You only control yourself. You don’t control others. If you can’t come to this realization, you have a problem. You’re of course entitled to your opinion as I am mine. The buck stops though when you try to tell others what they should do. You do know what they think of your orders. 🖕
It’s their blog, why should anyone tell them what they can and cannot post?
I find their perspective on the craziness of the whole terrifying past four years to be quite restrained.
You guys defending them are naive in not realising they love getting the hate. Anything that gets a comment is good in their eyes.
I fully understand (no naivety here) how a little bit of controversy can be good for a blog or brand. However, politics is very relevant to our personal and family finances, and also to the kind of world in which we live and spend our hard earned money.
I found the wide-ranging comments interesting, enlightening, and a welcome break from the sterile world of pure finance. Perhaps a future post could look at the pros and cons of religion in achieving FIRE!
Your blog therefore your opinion. I thought conservatives were all about FREE SPEECH!!!
Crazy times indeed.
Wow, looks like the trolls have finally discovered your site.
Thanks for breaking down the Biden tax proposals a bit more. Looking forward to your view on the 401K changes!
Wow, so sad to see so many delusional Trumpers out there. People are seriously fucked up. Perfectly good article though! Looking forward to the thoughts on the 401k potential situation. Thanks!
I’ve been buying my own health insurance since 2011 and I’ve been doing better than anything Healtcare.gov can offer me, but I’m curious about what a public option will look like. I’m curious about the 401k changes too, and would like to see them be more equitable to IRA contributions for those who don’t have access to a 401k (aka most lower income workers). So just because my employer doesn’t offer a 401k I can only contribute $6k to a tax advantaged plan, but someone who’s employer does offer a 401k can contribute $19.5, and then an additional 6k to an IRA. How is that fair?
The comment section going hard blasting you aye. To be fair, being completely unbiased is an incredibly hard skill to acquire. Even those saying they’re unbiased can’t be perfect about hiding their own unique perspective on any given matter.
Whew. I feel like I just walked on coals while scrolling down to the bottom of these…colorful…comments so I could leave a little love. I’m sorry you’re on the receiving end of what’s been going on here in the U.S. for the past four years. Absolutely adore this blog – and I’m not just saying that so you guys will help me obtain Canadian citizenship 😉
We are entering an interesting comparison in fiscal policy from leaving money with the wealth creators to redistributing our money to the democrats’ causes. They have also promised to increase regulation and the cost of that on the economy.
Those of us reading this blog will all be alright pretty much no matter what US public policy will be. We have the capacity and ability to; plan ahead, defer rewards, spend less than we earn, and manage our assets with care. We will be fine, maybe not as prosperous as we might be, but fine.
The people who will suffer are the ones who don’t know or can’t plan, defer, manage, or even earn a living. Low income earners are the people whose incomes grew faster than any group under President Trump.
The party of Wall Street (5:1 Biden donors) has now taken over.
I’m personally happy to see the conman-der in chief pack his bags but the reality of the future is ‘nobody knows nothing’. Words to live by. Keep working hard and saving what you can while adapting to whatever the future or same government brings.
I’d like to retract the tone of my first comment. It is 100% your blog and I fully support free speech. I didn’t mean that I didn’t want to read your differing opinion so much as I was disappointed that two people I consider very smart seem to be not taking the time to see through what just happened down here. All the best.
Firecracker…. honestly… you didn’t seem to post my first comment. Could you publicly state why that post wasn’t allowed to post? The one with the bitchute video and discussing censorship? Garth at thegreaterfool blog would be disappointed in you. Which is where I first discovered you folks and where comments are allowed no matter the differing opinions.
“I’d like to retract my first comment”
“Wait, my first comment was retracted already! Shame! I retract my request to retract!”
I think the whole world has seen what’s happened down there; that’s why the world is breathing a sign of relief. Perhaps, just perhaps, you’re too close to the trees to see the forest.
Well, I for one is relieved that we now have a sensible, competent, sane and decent US president. It is not only the market that dislikes instability and uncertainty! Now I can focus more on my FI plans and less on unfolding disasters in the US, as there will be actual science-believing leadership to deal with various issues.
Thanks for your input, Wanderer! An outside opinion is much appreciated. Sorry you’re getting attacked by my fellow Americans. Please forgive them, they’ve endured 4 years of non-stop lies, debunking of lies, lies about the debunking of lies, etc. We all have cabin fever and over exposer of social media, and I truly hope we can be a more sane country in the coming years.
I’m SICK of the political posts. Not everyone agrees with your political opinions (I for one do NOT agree with you) and that’s fine. Please get back to giving us financial advice, not preaching to us about your political beliefs.
Strange. Nobody forcing you to read anything.
So many strange gremlins abound.
I respect and tolerate other opinions like Millennial Revolution’s opinions and MMM’s. Just because somebody disagrees with somebody else doesn’t mean they are “unhinged” or “crazy.” Do we celebrate diversity of opinion or not?
A lot of great alternatives to public healthcare emerging.
I found your blog after reading you book and I have enjoyed all of your posts. As an independent (political affiliation) American who has always voted a split ticket, I apologize for the negative and hateful comments. You don’t deserve to be yelled at by opinionated people on the internet. I find all of your posts interesting and informational. We should all follow the golden rule and be kind to each other. Keep it up guys!
Thanks for another good article. My wife and I both retired this year in our 30’s and are traveling the USA in a RV. I’ve learned so much from both you and MMM. Thanks and keep up the good work.
Wow. Well written post, Wanderer. You must be having a good laugh with these comments.
Reading these comments make me wonder why Americans are so afraid of reforming their healthcare system into what we have here in Canada, a socialized healthcare. Yet they complain how entangled Obamacare and expensive insurance premiums are.
I love Canada, eh. I can’t imagine having to fork out $7k monthly for hospital bill. They must be having high blood pressure whenever anyone in their family falls ill due to medical bills.
Trump and all the people claiming fraud and irregularities, I have one question. Who is the the current president and leader of the USA? Why will such fraud be going on under Trump’s watch? How will someone who is not in government yet have control of your elections without your knowledge and then you come out to cry wolf? Does that mean you left a loophole in the electoral process as a president?
Wow. I’m really enjoying the way one half of American people view one politician’s character as evil and the other half see the same person as a saint and savior even though the whole world looking from afar see their current president as a laughingstock.
To answer your question, I’m afraid of moving to the Canadian system because:
1. The stop gap – My local hospital contracted with New Brunswick to provide cancer treatment for their patients. Another Maine hospital contracted with Quebec to provide cancer care. Canada has really focused on not keeping cancer patients waiting and now it is only about 4 weeks.
2. The waiting list – “…overall, waiting times for medically necessary treatment have increased since last year (2018). Specialist physicians surveyed report a median waiting time of 20.9 weeks between referral from a general practitioner and receipt of treatment…”
3. The stress on doctors – One doctor’s story of why he moved to the US. “At times, I would place patients to the end of the line only to read their scan months later and realize that they had an out-of-control tumor or rampant infection that should have been addressed months earlier. I could not sleep at night working in such a system.”
The US healthcare reform I’m waiting for is tort reform that will end the daily lawyer ads on TV trolling for patients. Both the US and Canada have room for improvement.
To people saying ‘stick to finance, not politics’, you should know by now that they are very much related, and if you don’t, you really need to learn about finance.
Looking at the comments above by Trump voters: don’t get your information on Fox ‘news’, FB and Twitter-be curious and critical. Truth is not liberal or conservative, it is fact but you have to get your facts straight.
@Boo307, Good to know your perspective.
Thanks for this article that points out the obvious (there was no voter fraud) and explains the not-so-obvious (how Biden will affect our finances). I love reading your articles and appreciate that you are real people with real opinions who provide a valuable service in teaching all of us about FIRE. Love you guys!
Reading thru the amazing comments just thought of DSA “Divided States of America”! Biggest democracy in the world is just going downhill … The majority of the voters has clearly express there preference just accept it with all the consequences it will happen anyhow. What a waste of energy …
While we don’t often delve into politiccs, it will be interesting to see if Biden/Harris can get some of their agenda passed in their 1st term, given the state of our political system.
Hopefully we can remember that we are all Americans, and we have much more in common than that which separates us.
For FIRE–minded people, I hope Biden is lenient on changes to the middle sector of 401ks/403bs and the like. While we are still working towards FIRE ourselves, we will watch to see what changes are made to the next four yeas.
There is a blog on the TaxPolicyCenter.com website of possible tax law changes. Since Biden hasn’t released a comprehensive detailed list of proposed tax increases, they did a little digging. By looking at campaign statements, questions to Biden’s staff, and logical inferences they summarize potential tax changes. Maybe one day a reporter will ask Mr. Biden the details of his tax proposal, so we can plan our finances.
What an interesting comments thread! Basically almost 0 people outside the US support Trump (like I think 10% of Canadians). We are not all Americans!
Here is an unusual perspective on why people support Trump. The tl;dr is that people sometimes want to exercise their right to be wrong. Facts aren’t going to convince them otherwise. What does? Good question. But it’s certainly not reasoning.
This is a misinformed opinion about the rest of the world. You’ll be surprised to know many in Taiwan are big Trump supporters along with many pro democracy protestors in HK for his anti-China stance. They in fact are nervous about Biden’s incoming administration lest it become too diplomatic with Beijing and thus, weaken American support for their resistance. It is not obvious to many in the West how other issues and power dynamics play out in other parts of the world, but it is equally ignorant to believe that the rest of the world prefers Biden. Even movements on the “good” side like Taiwan independence and HK democracy are in large part Trump leaning
I’m not a Trump supporter. But Trump bashers shouldn’t be so quick to come to conclusions either.
There is some support in some countries but I think it’s fair to say that Trump is globally really unpopular.
Extremely unfavourable in all of Europe except for Poland and to a lesser extent Slovakia and Ukraine. Favourable in the Philippines, Kenya, and India. At all other places below 50% and often well below.
Western world is firmly against Trump. non-western world much more of a crapshoot
in South Korea, people in the west will be surprised to know that Trump actually plays the role of the conventional liberal dove while Biden is the conservative hawk. Liberals in S korea want Trump for his active engagement stance with NK and conservatives of S Korea want Biden hoping he would return the US back to an aggressive denuclearization with the North instead of building on Trump’s summit diplomacy with the NK regime
All this to say many in US/Europe/Canada would be surprised the side that Trump takes outside of conventional American narratives. Relative to Biden, Trump is perceived as the defender of human rights and democracy for many Hong Kong protestors, for Taiwanese independence and in a roundabout way, the liberal position on the Korean peninsula.
I hope my comment will end all discussions about politics.
Politics are nothing more than a facade over money.
Since the first day of organized civil soceity, our forefathers and foremothers (mostly forefathers) had tried to out do others with politics with the desire for more resources.
If you are spending time fighting and supporting a political party without the understanding of your financial benefit as the end game…you are wasting your life away.
Good luck people!
“If Democrats control the Senate, then the government will become a rubber-stamp factory for Joe Biden’s agenda. ”
Here is it again in your writings, people keep forgetting or just don’t know that, at least for now, it takes 60 votes in the Senate. Okay, Okay, reconciliation, but only 25 reconciliation bills have been sent to the President since 1980. That isn’t even 1 a year so, no, Democrats won’t be rubber-stamping anything.
The only thing Democrats can rubber stamp is judicial appointments which is why T was able to get confirmed a record number of judges. Harry Reid of Nevada made this possible by changing century long Senate rules.
The accusation of voter suppression against an opposition that is concerned about voter integrity is an excellent way to mind f–k people to the point of never concluding that one side doesn’t care in the least who or what votes. Finger pointing away from the obvious so the obvious is never recognized.
More and more people on both side have little faith in the results. Democrats investigated the 2016 election for over 2 years, remember. If Republicans won the Senate, trust that at least 2 years may have been investigating the 2020 election. When elections become untrustworthy, things happen, like the capitol riot. So keep throwing around the accusation without changing the narrative (doesn’t care in least who or what votes) and there will be more riots, more unrest and more of such I don’t even want to say. Add in high tech censorship that drives people underground and watch out when they emerge.
I’m not partisan. I could care less about who is President, because I’m all about the economy and these days the economy is all about the FED and I don’t see that changing for a long time. After reading Lyn Alden’s research (free at her website) and a few other macro researchers, I realized that no matter what party is leading, they aren’t more powerful than the FED. Federal judges – same – FED is more powerful.