Reader Case: Swiss Family Early Retirement Plan Upended by the Current Market

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It’s been a while since we’ve done a reader case, so let’s break open the vault and take a look. This one is a tad involved, so let’s get cracking!

Photo by Alberto Casetta on Unsplash

Dear Kristy and Bryce,

I have been following your blog and also read your book, not once, but twice. We have been preparing for FIRE for a few years and by the look of the numbers we will be FIRE ready in the next 2 years but a few things are holding us back. Including but not just the fact that, we made some very bad investment decisions in 2021 and this has shaken our confidence about our investment ability. 

Reasons we want to hold off taking the plunge:

  1. We welcomed our baby girl earlier this year and it would just be easier and safer to travel around with her when she is older
  2. We made some REALLY bad investment decisions last year, like investing in Chinese funds. We want to sell them and put the money back into a global ETF. If we sell them now, we stand to make a loss of 60%!! Our investment return to date is close to 0%. So we want to wait till we can rebalance our portfolio 
  3. We bought a pre-sale investment property with completion date set in 2024
  4. We want some more buffer, ideally withdrawing at 3.5% instead of 4%

Reasons to do it NOW:

  1. After reading Kristy’s family emergency, we really resonate with the HEALTH is WEALTH perspective, and that’s not just the health of our family of 3, but also that of our extended family.
  2. Mr. Swiss is a bit burnt out with work

Our numbers:

We are a family of 3, living in Switzerland and in many ways, this makes it easier to geo-arbitrage because our home country is more expensive than 99% of places we’ve ever visited. So much so that retiring in the next few years is only possible if we move abroad. I’m sure you guys recall how expensive things are here in Switzerland. 

Our combined gross income is $260,000, net $200,000. Our annual expense is $112,912.

Expenses:

 AnnualMonthly
Rent33,0002,750
Utilities1,10092
Phone and internet1,700142
Car1,500125
Groceries and eating out18,0001,500
Shopping8,000667
Holiday
Health insurance9,612801
Kid40,0003,333
Total112,9129,409

Here is a breakdown of our net worth of 1.2M:

InvestmentsCurrent AllocationTarget Allocation post retirement
Cash2%5%
Real estate25%20%
Equity40%75%
Pension33%0%
Total100%100%

Stocks $480,000

We are looking to move some of the riskier assets into index funds during these two years and expect to put in another $60,000 before we retire. We hope the stock market will recover somewhat by the time we retire but if not, we will set aside enough cash cushion + yield shield for another 3 years so we don’t need to worry too much about the timing of recovery.

Breaking down our equity allocation:

InvestmentsCurrent AllocationTarget Allocation
US S&P ETF60%10%
World ETF9%40%
Chinese ETF13%0%
Emerging market ETF0%10%
CRAPPY individual stocks16%0%
Crypto2%0%
Preferred share ETF0%20%
Bond ETF0%20%
Total100%100%

Questions:

  1. What do you think of our target asset allocation? We really aren’t sure about investing into a Swiss ETF since it’s such a small country (although a nice one) and we have real estate exposure to the Swiss market. We invested into a risky Chinese tech ETF and got totally hammered ad we aren’t sure if should switch it to a Chinese broad market ETF or just forget it altogether. We get exposure to the Chinese equity market from the world and emerging market ETF anyway.
  2. We are investing in real estate to complete our fixed income portfolio. What do you think? Our case for investing in rental properties is listed below. 
  3. What’s your suggestion for our rebalancing schedule? If we rebalance today, we stand to make a huge loss on our Chinese ETF and individual stocks.
  4. Do you have any experience with minimizing withholding tax as an international expat? We can’t use a tax shelter like the folks in North America can. Is it better to invest in Ireland-domiciled ETFs instead of US based ones?

Real Estate: We have two rental properties, property 1 is rented out and property 2 will be completed and rented out in 2024.

Here’s our thinking behind investing in rental properties in Switzerland (feel free to critique, it’s why we wanted to share our story):

  1. We are optimistic about the Swiss real estate market because:
    1. the economy is strong
    2. population has grown and projected to grow in the near future
  2. Unlike in North America, you don’t need to pay off your mortgage here. You are required to pay off only 33% of the purchase value. That means you can owe the bank 67% of the purchase price, literally, forever, or until you die. Of course, you still need to pay interest on the outstanding loan, which is tax deductible. This means, we won’t have huge equity tied up in real estate if we wish. And as time passes and inflation kicks in, the equity tied up to these properties will shrink in proportion to the rest of our portfolio.
  3. We only buy properties within 5 mins of the train station (similar to metro/subway elsewhere) to ensure low vacancy rate
  4. Transaction cost is super low compared to elsewhere

The downsides of owning property in Switzerland are:

  1. There is a hefty capital gain tax on the sale of a property but this tax decreases for each year you own the property. This means, if we are short on cash, selling the property will be the last thing we want to do in the next 10-15 years.
  2. Our property holding is not diversified at all and we face currency risk since we don’t aim to retire in Switzerland (it’s too expensive!!).
  3. All the work that goes into managing a rental property but this can be outsourced at a cost.

Here are the numbers

Property 1

Purchase value: $580,000

Down payment $116,000

Outstanding loan: $464,000

Actual gross rental income: $23,880/year

Annual amortization: $5,796

Cash flow after deducting all costs, including contribution to a building’s fund reserved for future repairs, and mortgage payments: $7,500/year

The cashflow return is 6.5% ($7,500/$116,000) and the equity return is something like 11.5% (=($7,500 + $5,796)/$116,000). The mortgage is fixed for 10 years so the big unknown in the next 10 years is vacancy rate. Since we only need to pay off 33% of $580,000, by the end of 10 years, 30% will have been paid off and we are only left with roughly $17,400 so the property will generate even more cashflow (aka. fixed income). When 33% of the purchase price is paid off, the return will be something like 4.2% = (net rental cashflow/580,000*33%) or a bit lower due to vacancy. We have already deducted the expected maintenance cost of 1% of purchase price and that’s considered conservative here.

Since the purchasing of this property, the market value has gone up 10%.

Property 2

Purchase value: $935,000

Down payment: $187,000

Outstanding loan: $748,000

Expected gross rental income: $33,000 (conservatively set)

Annual amortization: $8,100

Cash flow after deducting all costs, including contribution to a building’s fund used towards future repairs, and mortgage payments: $2,000/year.

Since the mortgage hasn’t been fixed, the mortgage rate in 2 years’ time, is the biggest unknown. In a moderately pessimistic scenario, the property doesn’t generate any free cashflow then the equity return is 4.3%.

We are optimistic about the appreciation potential of property 2 and its rental value but we are concerned that the rising rates will eat into our profit, at least in the first few years. We have an option to not do a fixed mortgage and do a variable rate mortgage. In Switzerland, the variable rate mortgage (called SARON here) is still quite attractive compared to rest of the world at 0.9% (after 2 rate increases in 2022).

You guys have written extensively about the pros and cons of owning properties but we see the two properties as our yield shield and inflation hedge.

Cash $30,000

Pension fund $400,000

$150,000 of the pension fund is invested in stock market funds and the rest in a fixed interest account (this is regulated and we have no choice here). Most of this $400,000 can only be withdrawn 3 years after we officially leave the country. This means we only need a cash cushion for 3 years and need to think about how to put this lump sum back into the stock market.

Total asset = $1,213,000

Post retirement: We think our expenses will be around $45,000 but since we will put our toddler into international school, our expenses will go up annually to close to $60,000 in today’s dollar by the time he is 12.

Questions:

  1. How do you guys factor in increasing expenses as life situation changes in your planning? Either due to raising a kid or just wanting a more comfortable lifestyle? Do you guys think you will be comfortable on $45,000/year forever?
  2. Have you guys ever looked into long term residence permits in countries you would like to spend more time in? At some point, we might not want to be restricted by the 3-month tourist visa. Also a requirement given that we will need a residence permit to enroll our kid into local schools.
  3. Our pension asset needs to be reinvested three years after our retirement, what kind of reinvestment schedule would you suggest? Should we reinvest over a 1/3/5 year horizon? We are scared that we might invest at the wrong time of the market and screw up our retirement plan.
  4. Do you let the weaker equity market dictate your withdrawal rate just to have a peace of mind?

I’ve thoroughly enjoyed reading your blog and book, keep up the good work!

From Swiss Family of Three


This reader case caught my eye right away because with a title like that, how could it not? With the volatility in the stock market, we’ve been asked repeatedly whether it’s still a good time to retire, so this reader case is very timely.

It also a very meaty reader case complete with bad stock picking, real estate speculation, and inflated costs from living in one of the most expensive countries in the world. What’s interesting is that the reader is preparing to retire outside of Switzerland, which will likely reduce their time to retirement because literally anywhere else has a lower cost of living. But with all the headwinds against them, can they FIRE? Or have their retirement dreams gone up in flames?

Let’s find out! As we love to stay on this blog, Let’s MATH THAT SHIT UP!

Summary:

Income (Net):$200,000/year
Expenses (yearly):$112,912/year
Debt:-($748,000 + 464,000) = -$1,212,000
Investible Assets:$30,000 (cash) + $480,000 (stocks) + $400,000 (pension) = $910,000
Property purchased value:$580,000 + $935,000 = $1,515,000
Yearly Rental income (Net):$7,500+$2,000 = $9,500/year

Okay, so based on their current Swiss living expenses, they will need $112,912 x 25 = $2,822,800 to become FI. Assuming they don’t sell their properties and factoring their net combined rental income of $9,500/year, their expenses would become $112,912 – $9,500 = $103,412/year which would require a portfolio of $2,585,300.

With an investible net worth of $910,000, they are 35% towards their goal. At their current savings rate of $200,000 – $112,912 = $87,088, or 43.5% of their net income, they are…

YearBalanceContributionsROI (6%)Total
1$910,000.00$87,088.00$54,600.00$1,051,688.00
2$1,051,688.00$87,088.00$68,326.56$1,207,102.56
3$1,207,102.56$87,088.00$77,651.43$1,371,841.99
4$1,371,841.99$87,088.00$87,535.80$1,546,465.79
5$1,546,465.79$87,088.00$98,013.23$1,731,567.02
6$1,731,567.02$87,088.00$109,119.30$1,927,774.32
7$1,927,774.32$87,088.00$120,891.74$2,135,754.06
8$2,135,754.06$87,088.00$133,370.52$2,356,212.59
9$2,356,212.59$87,088.00$146,598.04$2,589,898.62

…9 years from retirement, assuming their raises keep up inflation, they don’t increase their cost of living and they keep their long-term investment horizon. This also includes their rental income and assumes that they stay leveraged and the bank doesn’t call the loan. I wouldn’t consider this true FI since they would have $1.2M of debt hanging over their head.

But, given that they want to move out of Switzerland, that has the potential of significantly reducing their expense, and could get them to FI faster.

They’re estimating a $60,000/year expat spending for a family of 3, factoring in the cost of international school tuition which, given what the World Schoolers spend and other retirees with kids who don’t live in Switzerland spend, is doable. That would put their new FIRE target at $60,000 *25 = $1,5000,000. Given their investible assets of $910,000, if they sell their properties and free up the equity, after 3% Swiss real estate agent fee, they would add 0.97* ($935,000 + $580,000) – $1,212,000 = $257,550. Note that I’m assuming they sold at their purchase price, meaning no capital gains tax would be due.

This would put their new time to retirement at:

YearBalanceContributionsROI (6%)Total
1$1,167,550.00$87,088.00$70,053.00$1,324,691.00
2$1,324,691.00$87,088.00$84,706.74$1,496,485.74

Only 2 years!

However, given the volatility of the market, the current downturn in real estate and the short investment time frame, they will need to redo this calculation in 2 years based on their updated asset values.

They would also need 3 years of cash cushion saved to be able to make it to their pension access date, which would add another 6 months to a year to save it. That takes their time to retirement to 3 years.

So, they are at least 9 years away from retirement if they continue to live in Switzerland and 3 years to retirement if they choose to live in an inexpensive location (like Portugal) once they sell their properties and pay off their debt (if their projected targets hold up).

I would advise taking a 1-year sabbatical and actually try to live on their projected $60,000/year spending. Thinking you can do it and actually doing it are two different things. I know I can do it but not everyone gets sexually aroused from optimizing the ever-loving-crap out of everything like me. So your homework is to go travelling during your vacations, live like a local instead of buying an expensive packaged vacation, and track your expenses to see what your actual cost of living elsewhere would be.

And now to answer their questions (and boy, are there a lot of them!)

Questions:

  1. What do you think of our target asset allocation? We really aren’t sure about investing into a Swiss ETF since it’s such a small country (although a nice one) and we have real estate exposure to the Swiss market. We invested into a risky Chinese tech ETF and got totally hammered ad we aren’t sure if should switch it to a Chinese broad market ETF or just forget it altogether. We get exposure to the Chinese equity market from the world and emerging market ETF anyway.

I’m Chinese and I wouldn’t touch the Chinese stock market with a 10-foot pole. Drop that thing like it’s a live grenade laced with anthrax before it blows your portfolio to smithereens.

I would also reduce your 10% emerging market exposure to 5%. Is the World Index excluding US? Because it if it isn’t, you’re duplicating it with the additional 10% US equity holding. If it is excluding US, I would increase US exposure to at least 20%.

  1. We are investing in real estate to complete our fixed income portfolio. What do you think? Our case for investing in rental properties is listed below. 

The cashflow and ROE on your Swiss properties aren’t great. Property one is better than property two but you can get a 5% yield on a REIT with no work. Either increase the rent or get rid of them and buy REITs instead. If you move out of Switzerland, hiring a property manager will eat into your cashflow even more. Also, you can’t consider yourself FI if you’re have $1.2 Million dollars of debt. As interest rates rise, real estate values fall, and betting on appreciation doesn’t help you in retirement. You need cashflow, not illiquid assets.

  1. What’s your suggestion for our rebalancing schedule? If we rebalance today, we stand to make a huge loss on our Chinese ETF and individual stocks.

You’re already screwed, so either way, it’s going to be a loss. If it were me, I would just rip off the band-aid and fix the damage rather than let it fester and get worse.  

  1. Do you have any experience with minimizing withholding tax as an international expat? We can’t use a tax shelter like the folks in North America can. Is it better to invest in Ireland-domiciled ETFs instead of US based ones?

Use Ireland-domiciled UCITs (which are portable ETFs designed for citizens of the EU) to avoid inheritance tax for non-Americans. How withholding taxes work depends on what tax treaties Switzerland has with other countries, so this is really a question for a local tax expert.

  1. How do you guys factor in increasing expenses as life situation changes in your planning? Either due to raising a kid or just wanting a more comfortable lifestyle? Do you guys think you will be comfortable on $45,000/year forever?

“Comfortable” is the operative word here. If you only feel “comfortable” if you’re flown around everywhere on a private jet and live on a private island like Suzie freaking Orman, then yeah, $45,000 will not be “comfortable”.

But, if you’re happy to live in inexpensive places around the world like Mexico, South America, South East Asia, and Portugal, experience eternal summer while living comfortably off $40,000/year, then it’s very comfortable.

Given that the average monthly salary for those places are only $1,200-1,660 USD/month, you’re getting a passive income from your portfolio that’s double or triple the local salary. Live like a local and you’ll save big.

Don’t just take our word for it. Billy and Akeisha have been living on $30,000 USD or less for the past 30 years by using geographic arbitrage!  Justin, who has 3 kids, has been living on less than $40,000 USD for the past 8 years.

  1. Have you guys ever looked into long term residence permits in countries you would like to spend more time in? At some point, we might not want to be restricted by the 3-month tourist visa. Also a requirement given that we will need a residence permit to enroll our kid into local schools.

You have an EU passport, so you have the right to live in any European country indefinitely. Might I suggest somewhere warm like Portugal or Spain? Here’s a European family we interviewed on the blog who moved to Spain with their 4 kids. Their 3-bedroom home with pool cost just 1000 Euros/month in rent. Maybe connect with them and be friends?

  1. Our pension asset needs to be reinvested three years after our retirement, what kind of reinvestment schedule would you suggest? Should we reinvest over a 1/3/5 year horizon? We are scared that we might invest at the wrong time of the market and screw up our retirement plan.

Mathematically, time in the market is more important than timing the market, so lump sum all at once is the right choice. However, mindset is a big part of investing and if you feel that you’ll panic and sell during a bear market, you can dollar cost average instead. Invest the $400,000 over a year by dumping a quarter of it in every 3 months to get comfortable if that helps, but don’t draw out your buying activity over more time than that.

  1. Do you let the weaker equity market dictate your withdrawal rate just to have a peace of mind?

No. Our yield (dividends + interest = $50,000) now exceeds our annual spending (projected to be $42,000-$43,000 this year), so we no longer need to worry about withdrawal rate. We can literarily just live off the yield, not care about the capital value of our portfolio and sleep soundly at night regardless of what Mr. Market is doing, thanks to our Yield Shield strategy.

What do you think? Does it make sense for this Swiss family to retire early?


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28 thoughts on “Reader Case: Swiss Family Early Retirement Plan Upended by the Current Market”

  1. As in Switzerland where they elected “social democrat” representants as opposed to the right wing, in the US the reckless spending pushed by Brandon Biden and Washington Democrats is causing growing inflation, rising prices on everyday goods, which hurts all American families and is especially devastating to those on low and fixed-incomes. And now our portfolios and 401ks are getting hammered and we can’t wait for the right to come back in power!!

    1. Are these bots or paid posters posting right wing propaganda? I’ve noticed a sharp uptick in politically and economically illiterate comments like this lately on this blog that seem lifted straight from Fox news opeds or a right wing think tank.

      1. Bots my *** we people are tired of the socialist tyranny ! Bring back free market!
        I’m on the path to FIRE, follow JL Collins and big ERN who by the way thinks like me…no bot could say that. If you’re a commie get out of blogs like this, it’s about money..something you do not like..move to Cuba

    2. I have some age and wisdom to apply in life, and this current bunch in DC are the worst in my living memory. How anyone can be sticking with them still is completely beyond my comprehension! The Democratic agenda is anti-human, anti-family, anti-business, anti-America, and anti-common sense.

    3. Hi, Sara. About 50% of the COVID stimulus funds were allocated under the Trump administration with a red congress. The other roughly 50% were done under the Biden administration with a blue congress. You may not be a bot, but you are most certainly a robot.

  2. You expenses don’t include the mortgage payments on over $1.2 million of debt?

    Also how about property taxes and homeowners insurance as expenses?

    What’s your mortgage interest rate on those two loans ($1.2 million)? And what do “Annual amortization: $5,796” and “Annual amortization: $8,100” mean specifically? Can you explain in detail?

    1. Expense don’t include the mortgage payments. The cashflows from the real estate have already deducted all relevant expenses.

      Amortization means the part of the rental income that goes towards paying down the mortgage.

      The 464,000 loan has a 1% interest rate fixed for 10 years. The rest is not fixed yet.

    1. Switzerland have agreements with the EU so they can travel freely without passport control. I’m sure there’s more nuance with that but its not as difficult as most non-EU countries.

    2. Although they don’t have and EU passport, other FI expats (with kids) like Our Rich Journey (ourrichjourney.com) have been able to obtain residence visas in Spain and Portugal without too much trouble

    3. Switzerland isn’t EU, but is EEC and a bunch of other bilateral treaties with the EU that living elsewhere in Europe shouldn’t be a problem. My sister has been in Spain for well over a decade on her Swiss citizenship.

  3. From what I heard, thought about, and pondered…
    1. There will be severe banking crisis in 2023, i.e. savings account getting wiped out.
    2. Rising interest rate will eventually kill all those who are heavily indebted.
    3. Real estate investing will not be profitable for the next 20 years.

  4. I don’t know if it’s just me, but I clicked on a bunch of the Yield Shield articles and the body of the articles doesn’t show up. Different browsers result in the same thing.

    1. dump now? wow…China is on the brink of a huge turnaround with Covid lockdowns ending and all that and you’re telling them to sell KWEB? Now it’s the time to load it up all the way to the top !
      Dump real estate instead

  5. I agree they should dump the real estate. Owning rental property is a JOB, and not one that can be done from a distance. Hiring property management is expensive, and increases all your maintenance costs in addition to the fee paid direct to the property manager.
    My equity investments mimic the global markets: 55% US and 45% global ex-US. As the international markets mature, this percent will gradually shift, and I’ll adjust my holdings. I don’t do global so I have a lever to use when rebalancing. And the rest is in my “yield shield” of a CD ladder that covers me for 2 – 4 years of draws. Keep it Simple. No Gold, no real estate, no crypto, no individual stocks, no speculative ventures like Chinese stocks.
    I agree they should use their vacation time to try on living abroad at their target spending level. Nothing like reality to test drive your dream.
    P.S. Political rants should move to another forum.

  6. So interesting to read about FIers in other countries, especially seemingly luxurious ones like Switzerland to learn about what costs are not relevant to them that are in the US.

    Great idea on the 1 year sabbatical to try and live on your retirement income projection, to see how realistic it is. Agree with that.

  7. Great article! I like the idea about not tying all your eggs to one basket (China, or 2 properties) and spreading the risk globally.

  8. Wait what? Are you really using the 4% rule in Switzerland? Have you actually calculated the SWR for that country? Ibbotson has and it’s only 3.14% !!!!
    Careful when you use American rules for other places; US is not the center of the world.

  9. Keep your day jobs people or get another career or job you like . Bad economic projections for the next few years . Basically LIFE is happening which nobody can predict but which people have to expect the unexpected.

    FIRE is a complete myth and only works with an ever growing economy and stock market .
    With a young child this family needs to keep working

    1. FIRE isn’t a myth unless the future is completely different than history. Try this link if you don’t believe it. If you really like certainty set it up so you get 100% success on every historical period. If you would have survived the great depression I doubt there much coming at us now that would be worse.
      https://firecalc.com/

  10. “…Thinking you can do it and actually doing it are two different things. I know I can do
    it but not everyone gets sexually aroused from optimizing the ever-loving-crap out of
    everything like me…”

    Very responsible and honest perspective for your followers!

    Very few people can successfully “Geo-Arbitrage” and succeed at it…
    It is similar to a sure bad marriage if you are doing for the money!

    Rule of thumb, by the time you hit puberty, cultural values play a huge role in your long term comfort and security (i.e. happiness).

    When you are making a drastic move to another country with very different cultural values than the ones you have accustomed…
    It will be exciting and amazing at the beginning
    just like the first few years of any marriages!

    Take the 9 years plan for the insurance, just in case you have to return home!

    Moreover, now that you have a child…
    Switzerland may be not right for you, but you must give your kid the same chance you had, just in case it will work better for him/her.

    I am giving you this fact: a citizen of any country has a better chance of finding life success than any foreigner!

    Good luck kids!

    1. Thank you for your thoughts.

      I think most parents would not prioritize themselves over their kid’s future. We actually want to FI in a different country (not nomadic) partly because we want to expose our kid to different culture to build a more flexible mindset. It’s also easier to do it when they are younger. We are giving serious thoughts about her education so if she chooses to or if we think it’s better for her to return to Switzerland she can.

      1. Family of three here as well with a teen…

        We believe what the FIRE community and world-schooling space has thought us primarily is there is a way to maintain a harmonious equilibrium for the entire family much like finance is suppose to be a “household” matter. We completely view education very differently now seeing we are NO LONGER confined to the conventional “four walls” of a classroom. Yes, it is definitely easier to execute when they are younger and would have most likely started sooner (rather than later) had we known about it. The problem with most people is they won’t even bother to begin exploring the tail side of the coin if the only thing they see is the heads portion. Hence, this is very much a mindset thing… and reprogramming those habits (which has been ingrained in their DNA since birth) can be quite a challenge BUT not impossible to re-write so long you are open to CHANGE and “personal development” which is what the essence of our education and higher learning is suppose to represent. Our teen has now the capabilities of learning different platforms and executing various pathways whether he elects in-person route, virtual or interactive, via traditional school or home-schooling albeit he chooses to pursue post-secondary right after HS, take a gap year or enter as a mature student. And since our family belongs to a small niche of individuals occupying both the FI and world-schooling space, the skies the limit with our education so long we equip them with the right tools and skillsets.

        As parents, the only thing that matters to us is whether we want to equip our teen with a knife or a bazooka as they enter the battlefields of real life.

        ImmigrantOnFIRE

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