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What a start to the new year this has been, and it’s only fricking February!
While the US news has been bombarded with so much crazy crap that I can’t even keep up with it anymore, the news in Canada has been dominated by one topic: The threat of a US-Canada trade war.
Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for no good reason.
While the imposition of tariffs have been put on pause until March, the looming threat of a trade war and the instant recession that would bring has dominated our news coverage like nothing else.
It’s been really interesting seeing how my fellow Canadians have reacted over these past few weeks. Canadians aren’t the most overtly patriotic people in the world, but it turns out having your closest ally threaten your economy and sovereignty for *checks notes* no damned reason tends to piss people off.
All across the country, Canadians are voicing their displeasure by booing the US national anthem at sporting events (while notably still cheering the singer themselves, because after all, we’re still Canadian).
Every day Canadians are now boycotting US goods and instead choosing to buy Canadian. Stores are pulling American products from shelves and directing their customers to buy local instead.
And we’re cancelling travel plans to the US in droves.
It’s also completely upended the political discourse in this country. Our upcoming election was supposed to be a referendum on the Liberal Party of Canada, but it’s been transformed into a single issue: Which politician can best protect our economy from our neighbours to the south?
It’s also been a real-time class on how to stand up to a bully. In a trade war, the only real weapon we have against tariffs is to tariff them back. Retaliatory tariffs aim to harm the aggressor’s economy and cause enough pain amongst their citizens to, hopefully, pressure their politicians to back off. Nobody wins a trade war, but if you don’t retaliate and just let someone tariff you and get away with it, there’s no incentive for the aggressor to stop, so we really have no choice if we want this trade war to end.
The problem is, due to the relative difference in the size of our countries, even if Canada were to impose dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs on the US, the effect of our tariffs on their economy doesn’t carry the same punch as theirs do. Economists estimated that if the US puts 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, our GDP would shrink by about 2.5%. If we put retaliatory tariffs in place, their GDP would also shrink, by not nearly as much.
However, the same dynamic exists with the US trade relationship with Mexico. US tariffs on Mexico would also instantly spin Mexico into a recession, but a Mexican counter-punch doesn’t have the same effect on the US.
The only strategy that makes sense, therefore, is for Canada and Mexico to link arms and say “If you tariff us, we will both tariff you back at the same time.” Added together, Canada and Mexico’s retaliatory tariffs will likely spin the US into a recession, but only if we stand together and coordinate our response.
It’s a diplomatic strategy popularized in the Hunger Games trilogy known as “If we burn, you burn with us.”
Pictured: Diplomacy
So that’s basically what Canada and Mexico did last week. We both threatened combined retaliatory tariffs on the US, the stock market dove fearing a coming recession, and in the end, Trump backed off.
But this doesn’t stave off the threat forever. At best, this has earned us a reprieve. In a little less than a month, we’re back arguing about the same shit once again. And frankly, even if the US president took tariffs with Canada and Mexico off the table, there’s nothing stopping the US from threatening us later over any perceived slight, real or imagined.
So that’s why the buzzword that’s been on every Canadian (and presumably, Mexican) mind is the D-word. No, not Donald. Not even Democracy. The D-word I’m referring to is: Diversification.
Canada has made the mistake of letting our economy become overly dependent on trade with America. By intertwining our economies, the logic went, it would make no sense for the Americans to blow up our economy, because they would be hurt as well. It was an interesting theory on paper, but unfortunately for all of us, it’s been proven to be completely wrong.
We’re scrambling now to fix this problem by building infrastructure like pipelines, railways, and ports needed to transport our resources to markets in Asia and Europe, but it will take time, and until that’s done, Canada is going to be vulnerable. By failing to anticipate a second Trump presidency and not diversifying our economy years ago, we’ve opened ourselves up to a single point of failure.
But that also opens up another question. Are we, on a personal level, sufficiently diversified in our financial lives? Are we also vulnerable to a single point of failure? And if so, how do we eliminate that single point of failure and ensure that no one event can destroy our financial lives?
Diversify Your Assets
When it comes to investments, Canadians have a nasty tendency to invest primarily in domestic assets. We invest in the Canadian stock market and Canadian bonds, all in Canadian dollars, just because it’s familiar.
This is known as Home Country Bias, and it can turn against you.
Patriotism is a good thing, but not when it comes to investments. I love Canada, but I have to be realistic: We’re just not that big. And as the world has no doubt noticed, Canada’s economy is mostly resource and trade-based, so we’re vulnerable to geopolitical risks like, say, a trade war with our biggest trading partner. It’s just not safe to put all your eggs in one basket.
That’s why we advocate for a globally diversified portfolio, that includes your home country and international markets as well. For Canadians, this means putting some eggs in Europe, Asia, and yes, even the US.
Here’s the truth. Nobody can predict what’s going to happen in the future. If someone had told me that in 2025, American would be engaging in a trade war with Canada and Mexico while Elon Musk gets to pillage the US Treasury with no consequences, I would have told that person they’re nuts. But here we are.
That’s why our equity allocation is split evenly between Canada, the US, and EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East). In this trade war, things are going to get volatile in North America. So in an uncertain world, it’s best to spread your bets across geographical regions because you just never know which region will take the lead. What’s been really interesting is that the EU has responded to Trump’s tariff threats with a shrug. The EU is big enough to trade amongst themselves, and smart enough to not hand over the keys of their economy to a foreign power. Who knows? This might be the year that EAFE really does something interesting.
Diversify Your Currency
Many Canadians also keep the majority of their wealth in Canadian dollars. As the last few weeks have shown, the exchange rate can be surprisingly volatile.
The easiest way to gain exposure to the USD in your investments (without literally holding USD) is to use the ETFs in our workshop because they are currency-unhedged.
Currency-hedged funds use financial instruments like options to counteract the effects of foreign exchange in your investment returns. A currency-unhedged fund, on the other hand, holds the underlying assets in their native currency, so when you use the US Index funds like VUN or the International index funds like XEF, you are benefitting when the USD rises in value against your home currency, the CAD.
This wasn’t super intentional. When we wrote the workshop, we recommended currency unhedged funds because they tend to have lower fees. But hey, when life accidentally gives you a win, you take it, right?
Diversify Your Income
And finally, the biggest source of all-in-one-basket syndrome is people’s dependence on their job.
“But I love my job!”
“But my boss is the best!”
“They wouldn’t ever fire me!”
These are the typical responses I hear when I suggest that no matter who you are, no matter who you work for, you should never depend on your job. To which I say: sure. That’s great that you believe that. It might even be true, for now.
But ask anyone who works in the US federal government how they’re feeling about their job security right now. This is the federal government. Can you think of any job that’s more stable and recession-proof than a job in the federal government? I can’t, and yet those are the people that are staring down a layoff threat wielded by none other than the richest man in the world.
Those federal workers are feeling the same thing FIRECracker was feeling in her last job. Her company had just posted a record earnings quarter, yet they were laying people off left and right. That’s when she realized that the only person you can truly trust is yourself, and your investments. Your boss, no matter how nice they seem, can be replaced at a moment’s notice. And that new boss might just see you as a liability to get rid of.
That’s why having a portfolio generating passive income is the best defence you can build against this possibility. Even if you’re not all the way to FIRE, having your money available in a liquid format that could be sold (if necessary) in the event of a job loss is way more comforting that holding a big mortgage that needs to be fed.
Conclusion
The FI in FIRE stands for Financial Independence. And Financial Independence is the strongest possible position to be in. It means that even if your boss tells you that you’ve been made redundant, you can laugh in their face and thank them for the severance. That’s real power.
And you gain that power through diversification. If you diversify your investments, your money, and your income, no one person (or one event) can derail your plans.
It’s a lesson that Canada is just now learning. But hopefully, by seeing our mistake, you can apply that lesson to your personal finances now, before it’s too late.
Remember, safety comes from the D-word: Diversify, Diversify, Diversify.
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Trump’s threatened tariffs were aimed at requiring both Mexico and Canada (but especially Mexico) to reduce human trafficking and the flow of Fentanyl to the US. Seems like he got what he wanted, though time will tell.
As a citizen of the USA I consider his make Canada the 51st State mere bluster and silliness, not an actual threat. Besides which wouldn’t it be 10 States, since Canada has 10 provinces? See what I mean?
Diversification, which was the point of this article is a very good idea. My investments have suffered from home country bias, but even though I am invested in stocks from many other countries I hadn’t considered investing in a currency index fund until I read your article, so thank you.
Look at Trump – fixin’ Canada’s problems for Canadians at the same time!!! You go girl! (Is that what we’re supposed to say now?)
Ray you can’t be for real. How would you feel if Russia wanted to make US their state? This is the same thing, or do you think people outside the US like the US? Of course not, we have to put up with you guys because you’re still the super power FOR NOW
I would feel insulted and demeaned, just like you do. But Trump’s tariff threat–the whole 51st State thing is just Trump’s normal blustery bullshit–worked, as Canada and Mexico are stepping up enforcement efforts at stopping illegals and drugs from entering the US–and that was what Trump really wanted.
Hi Ray, re: “Trump’s normal blustery bullshit–worked”
It didn’t work. Both countries “agreed” to implement what they had already agreed to implement with Biden in 2024, and Canada gave one of it’s police officers a new job title. Trump has since realized that he was played, and part of his response is the introduction of tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Canada will retaliate with tariffs of its own. The saving grace for me is knowing that Canada will outlast Trump, regardless of the hardships he causes.
‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that the good do nothing’
Oh please, give it a rest.
Great article. I have a question, do you know if VFV.TO(https://www.vanguard.ca/en/product/etf/equity/9563/vanguard-sp-500-index-etf) is currency unhedged ?
All of my US equity is in VFV.TO instead of the workshop ETF VUN.TO. If it’s not currency unhedged then doesn’t it make sense to sell VFV and switch to VUN ?
VFV.TO is currency unhedged. The hedged counter-part is VSP.TO.
Life has been pretty stressful in the US lately. I’m trying to ignore the news, but there are too many things that will change our lives. Diversification is good. The US stock market did very well over the last few years, but it won’t last. There will be a big correction at some point. Diversification will pay off then.
What does it teach us?
That hard and difficult decisions are necessary to change laziness and complacency.
It teaches us that Canada deserves everything it gets.
Canada needs to target over 2% GDP NATO, stop money laundering, secure border, stop fentanyl, stop Canadian drug diversion to US. If it wasn’t for Trump , Canada would continue to bury its complicity in drug and money laundering by its wilful inaction. Canada had lots of warning to diversify its trade last Trump tariffs in 2016 but failed to invest in its Energy Resource sector. Canada as usual was timid and dithering and was too lazy to make decisions to diversify.
President Trump is the best President Canada has ever had
Where are your sources that any of this actually happening? “Canada needs to target over 2% GDP NATO, stop money laundering, secure border, stop fentanyl, stop Canadian drug diversion to US.” Just because trump said it, does not make it true. How about you focus on how our democracy has been overridden by a citizen? or that a Billionaire is running our Whitehouse, not the president?
Canada has been a gracious ally and Trump is a moron to think otherwise. This will hurt the US for decades to come.
Additionally, our drug problem is our own. Don’t your kind blame the person not gun in shootings. No person has to take drug/fentanyl. Of course, this just fits your narrative so you twist it just like the president.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/canada-drug-super-lab-busted-fentanyl-guns/
Here’s a source. Looks like Trump said it, it was true, but of course you were too lazy to actually look it up because it doesn’t jive with your leftwing nonsense.
How about now you go and do some research on all the other things Trump said. Maybe, just maybe, there might be some truth to it. Just because you think it’s not true and are too politically warped to have objective, rational thinking, doesn’t make it so.
43 Lbs of fentanyl !!! That’s only what they have seized !!! Enough to kill 9 million people, yikes…Great job Mr. President forcing Canada to secure their borders and wouldn’t it be nice if we actually had a pipeline going across Canada but that will never happen, sigh
According to the DEA, 10-20% of the fentanyl illegally consumed in the US is synthesized locally, in fair Uncle Sam’s land.
https://www.dea.gov/documents/2020/2020-03/2020-03-06/fentanyl-flow-united-states
It’s not left wing, it’s not right wing, it’s fentanyl. And it kills both sides of the aisle.
Trump’s efforts to limits the US supply of fentanyl are understandable, but they risk being ineffective because they are poorly directed (like, I’ll shoot you in the face because you look so much like my mother in law).
What about the demand side? Elon, your thoughts on this would be precious too.
And finally, what if the whole drug thing is an excuse?
What if all these years, the US (sorry Wanderer, America is a different thing) has aimed straight for maximum growth, focusing on services and partly abandoning the manufacturing of goods? What if these choices are a major contributor to the US trade deficit, which therefore doesn’t stand a chance to be rebalanced by tariffs?
Ilian you poor uninformed person!! Did you actually read the article? “Canadian police dismantled what they said Thursday is the largest, most sophisticated illicit drug “super lab” in the country, saying they had seized “a record number of illegal firearms, synthetic drugs and precursor chemicals.”
THIS HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH TRUMP!! IT NEVER EVEN MADE IT TO THE BORDER! So it DIDN’T impact the US at all.
SO AGAIN, why is TRUMP putting a tariff on Canada? Because they stopped a drug ring in their own country?
Now who needs to do some research. This is exactly why folks like you shouldn’t be able to vote in any election.
Trump is a moron..whether he thinks straight or doesn’t.
It teaches us that a good portion of the American public is susceptible to factually incorrect fear mongering by an entitled group of billionaires who only care about themselves. Fact check: The border between Canada and the US is more secure than almost any other border in the world. There is more to what makes a country great than its GDP (like universal healthcare, few gun deaths). You are in a cult. Free yourself.
Mom on Fire, Well SAID!
Thank you, Mom on Fire. This American is profoundly embarrassed (and terrified) right now. I’ve moved away from diversification bc of the stock market’s performance, but I’m rethinking but avoiding acting with haste.
Agreed! Trump has accomplished more for Canada this past month than all the other Canadian politicians for the last few decades!
Now there is finally talk of diversifying our energy markets, abolishing inter provincial trade barriers, dismantling of Supply Management, securing our border, fixing our military, etc. etc. All things that needed to be addressed for a very long time and that were hurting us as a nation.
What exactly needs to be addressed with Canada? Again, the person who quoted a source completely screwed up because it was an article about how the Canadians took are of large drug ring. “Canadian police dismantled what they said Thursday is the largest, most sophisticated illicit drug “super lab” in the country, saying they had seized “a record number of illegal firearms, synthetic drugs and precursor chemicals.”
So again, what is so bad that Trump has to do what?
Holy crap, many Yankees really do believe the brazen lies from Trump!! Its all lies man. In fact, much MORE drugs, guns, crime come into Canada from the US. Its truly shocking that about half of American’s just believe lies from Trump.
Not only do they believe his lies, but they also filter out or ignore what he says and what he has done:
Trump said: “You know, I’m automatically attracted to beautiful — I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything.”, “Grab ’em by the pussy. You can do anything”. [Transcript: Donald Trump’s Taped Comments About Women]
Trump did: “Judge clarifies: Yes, Trump was found to have raped E. Jean Carroll”
The Washington Post, July 19, 2023,
On behalf of the US, I am sorry for our presidents actions. He is a bully, liar and above all else he only cares about himself. Unfortunately the uneducated minions are unable to see they will never come close to a billionaire lifestyle and think for some crazy reason he is considering them in his decision making.
Please know many of us do NOT support him. Who knows, maybe some of us will become Canadian citizens in the near future. Your reminder for diversification is right on. Trust me, here in the US where our constitution is being pushed to limits that many legal scholars feel is illegal, diversifying is the least we can do at this time.
We don’t need your apology. You and your ilk are exactly the reason why Canada is on its way to third world status and why the US is a shell of its former glory. And you have the gall to call others “uneducated minions” when you clearly don’t even have the intellectual capacity to do some basic research (see my earlier comment to you above) to understand why Trump is doing what he’s doing, whether you agree with it or not.
If you do decide to become a Canadian citizen though, you’ll be in good company. This country is full other ignorant snowflakes like you who are more interested in virtue signalling than taking responsibility for the way things are and doing something positive to change it.
“Enjoy” the ride and the person you voted for as there is hardships on the horizon, especially for middle and lower-class citizens.
I hope I am wrong, but if T-Rump and the MAGA Bros continue down the road they are going, it will adversely affect international relationships and open opportunities and influence to other large global economies.
This is hysterical!! Did you even read the article you posted Ilian
CANADA took care of the drug ring!!! IT DIDN’T MAKE IT TO OR OVER THE BORDER.
“Canadian police dismantled what they said Thursday is the largest, most sophisticated illicit drug “super lab” in the country, saying they had seized “a record number of illegal firearms, synthetic drugs and precursor chemicals.”
You are not even smart enough to use a source that actually supports your argument. YOU ARE EXACTLY THE UNEDUCATED MINNION THAT TRUMP LOVES. Well done representing him well.
Ilian, you have a right to hold your own opinions, even if they’re wrong. Being hostile to someone who is hurting is unnecessary.
If I don’t reply to any of your follow-up comments, it’s not because I can’t respond with a strong fact-based argument, but because I have better things to do.
The election of President Trump seems to be a scare sufficient to help officials and investors understand that diversification is the only way to be safe. Thanks for pointing it out.
A great explanation for those of us who only skim read any news and to help understand the global politics. (from NZ)
Cory Doctorow has an excellent article on how to push back against the fascist POS: cut revenue streams to the US tech sector and build up strong Canadian right-to-repair laws.
https://pluralistic.net/2025/01/15/beauty-eh/#its-the-only-war-the-yankees-lost-except-for-vietnam-and-also-the-alamo-and-the-bay-of-ham
As to why this trade war is happening, I think you’ll realize it’s very calculated if you follow the money. Several Russian-funded media platforms have managed to brainwash half the population over the last decade into promoting the loss of their own democracy (look to this comments section for a nice sampling). Read about Tenet media for example.
The long-term goal is to destabilize the economies and internal politics of US allies so that Russia can invade larger sections of Europe, China can capture Taiwan, and while our allies are busy defending themselves, the US can invade Canada with force.
Thank you for sharing. If you search for Heather Cox Richardson on Facebook, she also does a great job explaining what is happening from a legal perspective and it is scary.
I am wondering if I should diversify across multiple brokerage firms (Schwab, Fidelity ) in addition to Vanguard. It sometimes is scary to think about a brokerage firm where all your investments are goes under the water for whatever reason.
Our investments are divided between two brokerage firms and our cash is spread across three different banks. The primary reason for doing this is to protect against hackers and phone theft. Watch the videos—thieves grab phones when people are using them, unlocked! Given the uncertainty in the world today, having multiple accounts may provide some additional safety; it doesn’t cost anything if you use the right firms.
You make a compelling point (I typed “poing,” but I caught it in time!) about the value of diversification! Whether The Donald’s actions are right or wrong, guess what? They happened! As someone a million times smarter than I am said, “You can’t control someone else’s actions, but you CAN control how you react to them.” The real world is a volatile place, and you need to be prepared. I worked for VIPKID at one time–a Chinese company that taught English as a Foreign Language to kids in mainland China. The money was great until it wasn’t! The Chinese government decided it no longer wanted overseas teachers teaching Chinese kids online, and wham, bam, pow! Our students disappeared and our VIPKID income went down to $0.00 USD (feel free to convert this to RMB, Canadian Dollars, etc.).
Some VIPKID teachers had all of their eggs in the VIPKID basket. From This Much Money every month (spread your arms as far as they go), their income went down to $0.00 USD. Those of us who hadn’t quit our brick-and-mortar teaching jobs didn’t suffer so much, nor did those of us who had habitually put some $$$$ for a rainy day.
I’m sure that all of us here have experienced something similar: the one and only job, the big freelance client, whatever, that suddenly disappeared. This time, it’s The Donald and tariffs. Next time, it will be something else.
Lesson learned: Be like Captain Nim in “The Green Berets.” His great line: “I was prepared for that!”
I hope my poing is as compelling as your poing!
Dan V
Taipei, Taiwan
I noticed you used “America” to refer specifically to the U.S. To be more inclusive of the entire continent and avoid reinforcing U.S. dominance in language, I suggest using “the U.S.” instead. 🙂
You mean that thing close to the Gulf of Trump? LOL.
More seriously: I second that motion.
Canadians h
ave a hidden power in the new administration. Elon Musk is also a Canadian citizen!
Good advice. Too bad most people don’t heed it. Oh well…
I’m glad I do though and haven’t been dependent on a job for 4 and a half years.
Excellent post. Paula Pant’s Latest podcast episode about McKinley‘s tariffs and the coming “Cold Rush” new Northern trading routes that will mostly go through Canada, adds some excellent insights to the current situation.
Don’t despair or feel targeted. This administration will place 20% + tariffs on every nation eventually not just our neighbors and allies. This is sort of the US version of Brexit and will most likely end up with similar results.
Many US voters still don’t understand that they’ll be paying for most of these tariffs, but I think it’s still ok to blame them for the situation that we’re in. They were warned. I find it fascinating, that the Republican Party has actually convinced voters in red states that increasing their taxes (tariffs) while cutting what they get in return for those taxes, Massive cuts to rural schools, rural hospitals, rural infrastructure, rural green energy, rural farm, subsidies via USAid. States will also increase taxes to make up for the education short fall and infrastructure short fall.
Trump is one hell of a salesman! There will be some benefit for investors, manufacturers and job seekers in the US, but at what cost. I will say politics is like a pendulum, once people really start to feel this. It will be swinging the other way so fast our heads will spin.
US will feel the burn in inflation…let them be
(1) “Can you think of any job that’s more stable and recession-proof than a job in the federal government?”
Yes. I can. Think State and Local government jobs. They pay more than Federal government jobs without the fear of political blowbacks.
(2) “And we’re cancelling travel plans to the US in droves.”
Not yourselves though. I think you’ve never traveled to the US (as far as I can recall), nor have you ever planned to.
(3) How do you think this tariff talk will affect your preferred share portfolio (ZPR), its growth and dividend payout relative to a regular all-stock index fund?
Thanks! Enjoy reading your input as always.
How are you liking the reciprocal tariffs?
Lower yours if you don’t like them, or increase them if you do.
Best of luck!
“That’s why our equity allocation is split evenly between Canada, the US, and EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East).”
Based on your latest portfolio update, aren’t you guys actually 50% Canada? You’re 25% VCN and 25% ZPR which are Canada preferred shares.
Are you comfortable with a 50% home country bias if future tariffs spark a recession or inflation in Canada or if the Canadian dollar drops further?
Thanks for the unhedged clarification …
The comments on this post shows exactly how the world is today. We’re on the brink of annihilation and, honestly, at this point, a reset wouldn’t be so bad.
Really appreciate this blog!!
I am still trying to understand the hedged vs unhedged as well, would be curious what changes you are contemplating making to your portfolio this year? Perhaps a blog post idea…more info on hedging and any changes to your portfolio?
My current investments are XEF, VCN, and XUU (with ZPR, ZAG), been holding these for years (ZPR is a newer holding). Pretty similar to your investment Investment Workshop ;). Can you confirm if these are all hedged or if I need to change a few up? Is hedging a bond even relevant? Sorry for the very direct question, it might have already been answered but I just wasn’t sure.
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That’s an insightful breakdown of how international policies can influence everyday choices and even reshape political priorities. It reminds me how local systems also depend on transparency and accessibility for stability. For instance, staying informed through reliable sources helps communities stay aware of ongoing developments and maintain accountability at the local level.